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The update does not extend the time horizon of the product, but rather applies for the remaining 4 days of the previous Week-1 time period and Days from the previous Week-2 period. This page will depict both the original and updated outlook maps as well short text outlining the forecast rationale for any changes. Product Description The Global Tropics Hazards and Benefits Outlook is a forecast for areas with elevated odds for above- or below-median rainfall, above- or below-normal temperatures and regions where tropical cyclogenesis is favored for the upcoming Week-1 and Week-2 time periods.
The rainfall outlook is for precipitation integrated over a week and targets broad-scale patterns, not local conditions as they will be highly variable.
Above below median rainfall forecast areas are depicted in green and yellow respectively. Above below normal temperature forecast areas are depicted in orange and below respectively. Favored areas for tropical development are shown in red. Two measures of confidence are indicated, high solid and moderate hatched and are currently subjective in nature and not based on an objective system.
Bitte lesen Sie die folgenden wichtigen Hinweise:
Work towards a probabilistic format of the product and so an objective measure of confidence is ongoing. Along with the product graphic, a written text outlook discussion is also included at release time.
The narrative provides a review of the past week across the global Tropics, a description of the current climate-weather situation, the factors and reasoning behind the depicted outlook and notes on any other issues the user should be aware of. The discussion discusses the impacts in the Tropics as well as potential impacts in the Extratropics when relevant.
Product Physical Basis The product synthesizes information and expert analysis related to climate variability across multiple time scales and from various sources, including operational climate monitoring products. Product Forecast Tools The outlook maps are currently created subjectively based on a number of forecast tools, many of which are objective.
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